超级星期二来了又走了 . . . 惊喜 . . . 拜登总统和前总统特朗普 复赛似乎不可避免. To some extent, a redo of 2020 eliminates a lot of the guesswork as we move on to the 2024 election.
我们都知道特朗普在马科姆县表现不错, 下游, the rural areas of the Tri-Cities area and rural areas in general. 我们已经看到了2016年和2020年的数据. 同样的, 我们知道特朗普在奥克兰县表现不佳, 郊区的韦恩和肯特县以及政治温和派.
正是在这样的背景下 大鹏展翅 该网站首次公布了最有可能翻转的10个众议院席位. It’s the first under the new term limits law that allows incumbents to run for a fourth term, 这对民主党来说是好事吗. 代表. 安吉拉·维特尔(D-Lansing), Jim Haadsma (D-Battle Creek) and Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) can and are running 再一次。 in competitive seats and none of the three have lost as incumbents.
Witwer从未在选举中失败过.
在一般情况下, 现任者不会输掉选举, 哪一个, 再一次。, 会对民主党有利吗, 但是现在他们有了一个记录来运行. 这是一个渐进的过程. 枪支管制. 扩大堕胎服务. 更多没有地方否决权的风力发电厂和太阳能发电厂. 他们喜欢怎么试就怎么试, they want to make 2024 another election about a women’s reproductive rights, but after Proposal 3 cemented those rights into our state constitution, 很难看到堕胎有同样的魅力.
Instead, immigration has taken center stage, for now anyway, and that helps 代表ublicans.
On the money front, the caucuses appear to be playing to a draw.
还有很多我们不知道的. 其中一些选区没有明确的候选人. 鲍比·肯尼迪 Jr. 成为总统竞选的真正因素? 哪些候选人会投入工作? Will the immigration argument lose steam to a national issue that better suits Democrats?
但是，现在，我们的前10名是一个话题的开端. Keep in mind that of the first six seats we mentioned in our first Top 10 House Seats Likely To Flip in the spring of 2020, 三个了, 事实上, 翻转. We amended the feature in 2022 since all the districts were new.
- 109th区(左至右) -在你把这整张单子都扔给B之前.S. because this Marquette-based seat has a 53 percent Dem base, hear me out. 大U的人.P. 对代表不满意. Jenn Hill (D-Marquette) over that local solar/wind farm siting vote.
她因此在她的选区受到了公开的批评, and it’s earned her two primary opponents and four 代表ublican opponents. Do you know how many other vulnerable House incumbents have even one primary opponent at this point? 这是正确的. 零.
卡尔·博赫纳克是一位在美国工作了34年的退休电视气象学家.P. 已经申报并声称要以温和派身份参选. 常年共和党候选人梅洛迪·瓦格纳 2022年获得47%. Even a decent campaign by Bohnak with Trump on the ballot should get the 代表ublican nominee more regardless of whether Hill survives the primary or not.
- 46th区(右至右)- 要是民主党人能说服杰克逊市长丹尼尔·马奥尼就好了 而不是有缺陷的候选人莫里斯 Imhoff, things might have been different in a district w在这里 the demographics lean Dem. 而且，这个州不像109年那样明显倾向共和党th. 代表. Kathy Schmaltz (R-Jackson)有一个公开的表演, 这不是什么, but what issue is she championing in Lansing that’s going to connect back home?
- 103rd区(左至右) -很少有人能像众议员那样筹集资金. 贝琪·科菲亚(D-Traverse City), 但没有堕胎推动辩论, 她会像2022年那样享受顺风吗? True, the 代表ublicans had a phenomenal candidate in 前代表. Jack O’Malley, but they have another good one in Lisa Trombley. She’s a retired government contractor with an eye-popping resume and a connection to all sorts of local organizations, 其中许多与政治无关.
That same solar farm vote that’s going to cause Hill problems will be used 再一次。st Coffia.
- 27th区(左至右) 随着特朗普的参选，共和党众议员特朗普. Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte)’s longevity in this blue collar 下游 district will be put to the test. 到目前为止, both of the 代表ublican candidates are untested political newcomers, 这就是为什么这场比赛没有更激烈. But on paper, and if all things were equal, this should be a 代表ublican win. Considering the candidates who have filed to date, this isn’t equal.
- 61st区(左至右) – The 代表ublicans ran a lousy candidate in this Macomb County district in 2022 and still got 48% of the vote. If they can do better than a losing township trustee hopeful this go-around, this should be a quality pickup opportunity for them with Trump and U.S. 代表. 约翰•詹姆斯 在选票的最上面. 如果没有，这一条就会被拉下列表.
- 55th区(R至D) -和109一样th 正在慢慢从民主党人手中滑落，55th 正在慢慢从共和党手中溜走. 代表. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills) is as good of a candidate as the 代表ublicans can field 在这里 due to his deep connections to the community, 但前参议员. 玛格丽特•奥布莱恩 was a quality incumbent in 2020 in Portage, and she got smoked by those prevailing political winds.
这是特雷维斯·哈罗德 民主党竞选的人可能是这个地区的新人, but he’s working hard and making the connections he needs to make to be successful. 民主党很有可能在美国大选中获胜.S. 参议院提名人Elissa Slotkin 在这里也很受欢迎吗. 她可以推哈罗德一把.
- 83rd区(左至右) – We’re all about base numbers and numerical trends and all the rest, 但关于对位也有一些要说的. 前众议员. 汤米Brann 回来竞选怀俄明州的这个席位，对手是众议员. 约翰·菲茨杰拉德(怀俄明州民主党), 正如所料, 民主党至少需要在这方面花钱. 布兰恩不是一个会喷火的共和党人，他的谦逊, 藐视法律的人在州议会竞选中获胜. 如果不是菲茨杰拉德, a quick study who has successfully figured out this job as well as any freshman, 这个应该排在前面.
- 68th区(R至D) -同样的道理:众议员. 大卫·马丁(R-Davison) v. 前代表. 蒂姆snel matchup is another heavyweight bout that wouldn’t have made the list if not for Sneller, who has served Burton at the staff and elected level off and on since the early ‘80s. Martin won re-election 在这里 in 2022 with 54 percent of the vote. 至少，到2024年，双方的差距会更近.
- 58th区(左至右) -如果我们从头开始，这是共和党的席位. 100%. 但我们不是. 我们赌共和党人不会赢. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) so many times the last six years that we’re not doing it 再一次。 unless we see a good reason to. 特朗普将参加2020年大选? 并不重要. 香农赢得. 2022年共和党候选人? 并不重要. 香农还是赢了. We’ll keep Shannon on the list because Trump won this district by six points in ’20, 但在R的人找到合适的人选之前, 这个留在这里.
- 31st区(左至右) 民主党人在这里取得了胜利，因为共和党众议员. Reggie Miller (D-Belleville) run for re-election, after rumors had her bowing out. 然而，是她的心在里面? We’re not usually bullish on the losers of Round 1 winning in Round 2, but Dale Binieckinever stopped running after losing in 2022 and with Trump popular in much of this district . . .
在雷达上:28th District – The Democrats got a great recruit in Janise O’Neil Robinson, but 代表. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown) is about as perfect a fit for this district as you’re going to find. 她工作也很努力，为自己出了名. 她很难被打败.
54th 选区-我们不确定众议员. Donni Steele (R-Lake Orion)’s voting record is going to play in Bloomfield Hills, 但它在猎户座很好用.
76th 地区-幕后, 代表ublicans are talking big about making a play 再一次。st House Appropriations Committee Chair 安吉拉·维特尔(D-Lansing), 但这可能是一种策略. 我们会留意的.
Article courtesy 大鹏展翅 新闻 for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter